Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 22.867049 24.885342 27.066151 29.609010 32.506986 35.723942 39.588994
2025-12-07 19.608518 22.348218 25.515624 29.492531 34.416564 40.401324 48.366576
2025-12-14 17.272334 20.384413 24.174495 29.223484 35.922986 44.738860 57.640342
2025-12-21 16.092223 19.579282 24.026774 30.282204 39.148097 51.774373 72.192036
2025-12-28 14.705997 18.303680 23.055181 30.026101 40.442676 56.289597 84.269146
2026-01-04 13.666525 17.346264 22.356211 29.988005 41.958681 61.347793 98.716065
2026-01-11 12.920034 16.695169 21.981477 30.325086 44.041157 67.696486 117.690551
2026-01-18 12.142630 15.919372 21.330478 30.126370 45.174447 72.596403 135.688302
2026-01-25 11.468237 15.228669 20.727369 29.906866 46.200208 77.486081 155.815054
2026-02-01 10.918425 14.672962 20.269463 29.853018 47.484915 83.163389 180.782280
2026-02-08 10.398101 14.120441 19.763405 29.648148 48.436114 88.358811 207.498331
2026-02-15 9.920138 13.597967 19.258856 29.382084 49.212961 93.356783 236.999332
2026-02-22 9.471061 13.100601 18.770520 29.118536 50.011878 98.794738 273.052604
2026-03-01 9.093420 12.692213 18.398030 29.028434 51.169837 105.539153 321.012504
2026-03-08 8.718629 12.265764 17.963634 28.776033 51.939520 111.545375 373.145204
2026-03-15 8.597608 12.236442 18.195160 29.816619 55.801775 127.766579 503.008781
2026-03-22 8.273639 11.857377 17.794309 29.568401 56.604143 135.092432 596.351489
2026-03-29 8.007738 11.559106 17.513797 29.532175 57.921815 144.701547 731.489445
2026-04-05 7.815578 11.372436 17.417379 29.862433 60.232777 158.910699 958.526497
2026-04-12 7.561685 11.068464 17.088451 29.668241 61.139186 168.412761 1183.858176
2026-04-19 7.322105 10.777257 16.764650 29.453576 61.960084 178.093419 1475.837556
2026-04-26 7.119452 10.539751 16.525484 29.400933 63.234552 190.515936 1929.397844
2026-05-03 6.910374 10.281640 16.232382 29.200490 64.055378 201.497311 2503.224829